How could Nancy Pelosi be wrong?

Cracks in the ground

Manifest evidence that Iran is in difficulty will decisively undermine the assumptions underpinning Pelosi's strategy. Developments in the next few months will clarify the situation for all to see. If Iran begins to break down then it will be abundantly clear that Pelosi's -- and indeed Obama's -- diplomatic strategy in the region is fundamentally flawed. There is no point to going, hat in hand, to a regime that is itself on the way out. It would be like dealing with a corpse. Moreover, if Spengler's prediction that Iran has no way out but to continue it's "imperial adventure" -- "In fact, Iran is engaged in such an adventure, funding and arming Shi'ite allies from Basra to Beirut, and creating clients selectively among such Sunnis as Hamas in Palestine," then the Pelosi-Obama strategy of rapidly abandoning Iraq before an imploding, yet expanding radical Islamic state will be the worst of all possible worlds.

But there is a silver lining to Teheran's mismanagement of affairs. It creates the possibility that regime change will occur without any direct military intervention in Iran. It may simply be sufficient to hold the line and keep up the pressure against Iranian proxies in Southern Iraq and Lebanon to make Teheran blow a gasket. I've argued before that the greatest danger that the relatively liberal, Shi'ite democracy in Iraq poses to Teheran is that it creates an alternative political model within the Shi'ite Crescent.